Leroy N. Soetoro
2017-11-05 20:42:16 UTC
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/millions-professional-drivers-will-
be-replaced-self-driving-vehicles-n817356
Drive just about anywhere these days and youre likely to spot the signs
that have been popping up on the back of big semi-trucks plying the
nations freeways: Help Wanted.
At a time when a booming economy has led to record freight shipments, the
trucking industry is struggling with a severe shortfall of drivers.
And long-haulers arent alone. Delivery services, cab companies, even
ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft are struggling to find the
drivers they need to keep their freight and passengers moving. Ironically,
this shortage could wind up turning into a glut in the not-too-distance
future that will see a huge disruption in the American workforce.
The shortage of drivers is a huge inducement for the development of
autonomous and fully driverless trucks (and other vehicles), said David
Cole, director-emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann
Arbor, Michigan. While it isnt going to happen overnight, robotic
vehicles will soon begin to displace professional drivers in numbers that
will be certainly in the millions.
More Amazon, more packages, more trucks
There are currently about 3.5 million professional truck drivers in United
States, according to the American Trucking Associations. And the number
has been rising fast as more and more freight takes to the road. Trucks
are expected to handle 10.73 billion tons of goods this year, or two-
thirds of the nations total, according to the ATA, with the figure
forecast to grow a compounded 3 percent annually over the next five years.
To handle that load, trucking companies need to recruit about 90,000 new
drivers annually, but the trade group predicts the industry will fall
50,000 short of its goal this year, a trend that has been growing worse
since the economy began to recover.
Fleets are suffering from a lack of qualified drivers, said Bob
Costello, the chief economist of the ATA. It remains a serious concern
for our industry, for the supply chain and for the economy at large.
At a time when factory jobs are generally in decline, becoming a
professional driver is one way to make a decent living without more than a
high school diploma. And demand has grown not only in the trucking
industry but for taxis, buses, limousines, and ride-sharing services. Uber
and Lyft, in particular, have been fighting it out for qualified drivers,
with Uber recently accused of using dirty trucks to lure contract help
away from its smaller rival.
All told, research by Harvard University estimates 5 million Americans now
make a living, or at least work part-time, as professional drivers. But
things may look quite different not that long from now.
Self-driving trucks
One year ago this week a truck rolled into history as it traveled from a
Colorado brewing plant to a warehouse 120 miles away carrying 45,000 cans
of Budweiser beer. The early morning run was done using a truck developed
by a start-up called Otto, now an Uber subsidiary. Though there was a
specialist seated in the trucks sleeper berth to monitor things along the
way, there was no driver behind the wheel.
The ultimate goal for many freight-haulers is to take humans out of the
truck entirely. Proponents cite a wide range of advantages, including
reductions in traffic congestion and a significant improvement in highway
safety.
Theres also a financial carrot, said CARs Cole. A long-haul driver is
limited in the number of hours they can drive before taking a break, but
a robotic truck can operate pretty much 24/7 and without claiming a
paycheck at the end of the week.
Despite the potential payoff, the ATA is currently taking a conservative
approach. Spokesman Sean McNally told NBC News the group expects to see
drivers remain onboard most trucks as a failsafe, for the foreseeable
future, much as two pilots remain aboard commercial airliners, even though
many are now so automated they could take off, fly, and land robotically.
For its part, Daimler AGs Freightliner brands autonomous prototype, the
18-wheel Inspiration model, is designed to have a backup operator behind
the wheel. But officials at Freightliner and other manufacturers along
with several trucking companies quietly acknowledge they want to go
fully driverless as soon as possible. The challenge is not so much coming
up with the technology but winning the confidence of the public sharing
the road with 70,000 semi-trucks.
Driving a deal
The other challenge is trying to maintain peace with labor unions,
especially the Teamsters, representing many of the drivers whose jobs
could be at risk.
According to many observers, the real question is not if, but how soon,
driverless trucks and passenger cars - will take to the road. New rules
Congress is working on could speed up the development process by
permitting more testing on public roads.
Ford has set a hard target of 2021 for rolling out its first completely
autonomous vehicles. And General Motors hints it may try to leapfrog its
cross-town competitor: CEO Mary Barra this week declared, Our focus is on
moving as quickly as possible and having a first-mover advantage.
Related: Why All Vehicles Will Soon Talk to Each Other
How many driver jobs are at risk is uncertain, at least initially. Experts
predict that driverless technology will be phased in over a period of
years, perhaps even a decade or more, with the biggest impact initially
seen with long-haul trucks. Thats because Cole and others say its
easiest to develop the hardware and software needed to handle the
relatively predictable conditions trucks face on limited-access freeways.
But companies like Uber and Lyft are convinced theyll be able to automate
their vehicles, as well, and promise that this will lower the cost of
hailing a ride to the point where it becomes cheaper than actually owning
a personal vehicle. As a result, the Boston Consulting Group estimates
that perhaps one-third of the miles Americans travel by 2030 will be in
driverless vehicles operated by ride-sharing services.
Perhaps the biggest challenge will be finding ways to automate local
delivery services, whether a big brown UPS truck or the car driven by a
high school student for the local pizza parlor.
Dominos, which is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, recently partnered with
Ford on a pilot program in its home town. Customers opting in on the
project have to go outside and punch a code into a keypad on the side of a
specially modified, autonomous Ford Fusion then reach inside to pull their
pie out of a special warming oven.
The program is designed to answer questions about what Dominos President
Russell Weiner calls, the last 50 feet of the delivery experience.
In the future, services like FedEx and UPS might adopt a similar process,
or even use robots or drones that could pick up packages and move them
those last 50 feet.
It might remain too difficult to automate all professional driving jobs,
experts caution, but the trendline seems obvious, and as many as 5 million
part and full-time jobs could vanish over the next decade or two.
That does give time to consider what to do with all that manpower. CARs
Cole warned that the country will need to make a push to retrain drivers
for more skilled jobs.
If we dont prepare for this, he adds, were going to have a very
serious problem.
--
Donald J. Trump, 304 electoral votes to 227, defeated compulsive liar in
denial Hillary Rodham Clinton on December 19th, 2016. The clown car
parade of the democrat party has run out of gas.
Congratulations President Trump. Thank you for ending the disaster of the
Obama presidency.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp.
ObamaCare is a total 100% failure and no lie that can be put forth by its
supporters can dispute that.
Obama jobs, the result of ObamaCare. 12-15 working hours a week at minimum
wage, no benefits and the primary revenue stream for ObamaCare. It can't
be funded with money people don't have, yet liberals lie about how great
it is.
Obama increased total debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in the eight
years he was in office, and sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood queer
liberal democrat donors.
be-replaced-self-driving-vehicles-n817356
Drive just about anywhere these days and youre likely to spot the signs
that have been popping up on the back of big semi-trucks plying the
nations freeways: Help Wanted.
At a time when a booming economy has led to record freight shipments, the
trucking industry is struggling with a severe shortfall of drivers.
And long-haulers arent alone. Delivery services, cab companies, even
ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft are struggling to find the
drivers they need to keep their freight and passengers moving. Ironically,
this shortage could wind up turning into a glut in the not-too-distance
future that will see a huge disruption in the American workforce.
The shortage of drivers is a huge inducement for the development of
autonomous and fully driverless trucks (and other vehicles), said David
Cole, director-emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann
Arbor, Michigan. While it isnt going to happen overnight, robotic
vehicles will soon begin to displace professional drivers in numbers that
will be certainly in the millions.
More Amazon, more packages, more trucks
There are currently about 3.5 million professional truck drivers in United
States, according to the American Trucking Associations. And the number
has been rising fast as more and more freight takes to the road. Trucks
are expected to handle 10.73 billion tons of goods this year, or two-
thirds of the nations total, according to the ATA, with the figure
forecast to grow a compounded 3 percent annually over the next five years.
To handle that load, trucking companies need to recruit about 90,000 new
drivers annually, but the trade group predicts the industry will fall
50,000 short of its goal this year, a trend that has been growing worse
since the economy began to recover.
Fleets are suffering from a lack of qualified drivers, said Bob
Costello, the chief economist of the ATA. It remains a serious concern
for our industry, for the supply chain and for the economy at large.
At a time when factory jobs are generally in decline, becoming a
professional driver is one way to make a decent living without more than a
high school diploma. And demand has grown not only in the trucking
industry but for taxis, buses, limousines, and ride-sharing services. Uber
and Lyft, in particular, have been fighting it out for qualified drivers,
with Uber recently accused of using dirty trucks to lure contract help
away from its smaller rival.
All told, research by Harvard University estimates 5 million Americans now
make a living, or at least work part-time, as professional drivers. But
things may look quite different not that long from now.
Self-driving trucks
One year ago this week a truck rolled into history as it traveled from a
Colorado brewing plant to a warehouse 120 miles away carrying 45,000 cans
of Budweiser beer. The early morning run was done using a truck developed
by a start-up called Otto, now an Uber subsidiary. Though there was a
specialist seated in the trucks sleeper berth to monitor things along the
way, there was no driver behind the wheel.
The ultimate goal for many freight-haulers is to take humans out of the
truck entirely. Proponents cite a wide range of advantages, including
reductions in traffic congestion and a significant improvement in highway
safety.
Theres also a financial carrot, said CARs Cole. A long-haul driver is
limited in the number of hours they can drive before taking a break, but
a robotic truck can operate pretty much 24/7 and without claiming a
paycheck at the end of the week.
Despite the potential payoff, the ATA is currently taking a conservative
approach. Spokesman Sean McNally told NBC News the group expects to see
drivers remain onboard most trucks as a failsafe, for the foreseeable
future, much as two pilots remain aboard commercial airliners, even though
many are now so automated they could take off, fly, and land robotically.
For its part, Daimler AGs Freightliner brands autonomous prototype, the
18-wheel Inspiration model, is designed to have a backup operator behind
the wheel. But officials at Freightliner and other manufacturers along
with several trucking companies quietly acknowledge they want to go
fully driverless as soon as possible. The challenge is not so much coming
up with the technology but winning the confidence of the public sharing
the road with 70,000 semi-trucks.
Driving a deal
The other challenge is trying to maintain peace with labor unions,
especially the Teamsters, representing many of the drivers whose jobs
could be at risk.
According to many observers, the real question is not if, but how soon,
driverless trucks and passenger cars - will take to the road. New rules
Congress is working on could speed up the development process by
permitting more testing on public roads.
Ford has set a hard target of 2021 for rolling out its first completely
autonomous vehicles. And General Motors hints it may try to leapfrog its
cross-town competitor: CEO Mary Barra this week declared, Our focus is on
moving as quickly as possible and having a first-mover advantage.
Related: Why All Vehicles Will Soon Talk to Each Other
How many driver jobs are at risk is uncertain, at least initially. Experts
predict that driverless technology will be phased in over a period of
years, perhaps even a decade or more, with the biggest impact initially
seen with long-haul trucks. Thats because Cole and others say its
easiest to develop the hardware and software needed to handle the
relatively predictable conditions trucks face on limited-access freeways.
But companies like Uber and Lyft are convinced theyll be able to automate
their vehicles, as well, and promise that this will lower the cost of
hailing a ride to the point where it becomes cheaper than actually owning
a personal vehicle. As a result, the Boston Consulting Group estimates
that perhaps one-third of the miles Americans travel by 2030 will be in
driverless vehicles operated by ride-sharing services.
Perhaps the biggest challenge will be finding ways to automate local
delivery services, whether a big brown UPS truck or the car driven by a
high school student for the local pizza parlor.
Dominos, which is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, recently partnered with
Ford on a pilot program in its home town. Customers opting in on the
project have to go outside and punch a code into a keypad on the side of a
specially modified, autonomous Ford Fusion then reach inside to pull their
pie out of a special warming oven.
The program is designed to answer questions about what Dominos President
Russell Weiner calls, the last 50 feet of the delivery experience.
In the future, services like FedEx and UPS might adopt a similar process,
or even use robots or drones that could pick up packages and move them
those last 50 feet.
It might remain too difficult to automate all professional driving jobs,
experts caution, but the trendline seems obvious, and as many as 5 million
part and full-time jobs could vanish over the next decade or two.
That does give time to consider what to do with all that manpower. CARs
Cole warned that the country will need to make a push to retrain drivers
for more skilled jobs.
If we dont prepare for this, he adds, were going to have a very
serious problem.
--
Donald J. Trump, 304 electoral votes to 227, defeated compulsive liar in
denial Hillary Rodham Clinton on December 19th, 2016. The clown car
parade of the democrat party has run out of gas.
Congratulations President Trump. Thank you for ending the disaster of the
Obama presidency.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp.
ObamaCare is a total 100% failure and no lie that can be put forth by its
supporters can dispute that.
Obama jobs, the result of ObamaCare. 12-15 working hours a week at minimum
wage, no benefits and the primary revenue stream for ObamaCare. It can't
be funded with money people don't have, yet liberals lie about how great
it is.
Obama increased total debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in the eight
years he was in office, and sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood queer
liberal democrat donors.